Air Travel Demand Between The US & Canada Severely Declines
Data published by the travel data company OAG has revealed that forward bookings between Canada and the United States
have fallen by as much as 75% in the next few months.
Forward bookings collapsing
According to OAG, which used “forward booking data from a major GDS [global distribution system – ed. note] supplier,” the data showed a very alarming downward trend.
Comparing forward bookings from Canada to the US in March 2025 and March 2024, data showed that between April and September, they were down as much as 75.7% during some months.
|
Data by OAG |
Forward bookings from Canada to the US (March 2024 snapshot) |
Forward bookings from Canada to the US (March 2025 snapshot) |
|
April |
1.2 million |
295,982 |
|
May |
817,912 |
226,982 |
|
June |
649,878 |
184,720 |
|
August |
370,228 |
103,914 |
|
September |
223,160 |
65,680 |
“This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
The data essentially confirms what Leger’s research indicated in February: “nearly half of Canadian travellers (48%) say they are less likely to visit the US in 2025 compared to last year.”
Related
Air Canada Reduces Capacity On Florida Flights
Air Canada could introduce significant capacity cuts to its US-bound network, especially to Florida.
Last-minute bookings?
Air Transat
is so far the only Canadian airline that has announced its most recent results, with the carrier’s Q1 FY2024/2025 ending on January 31 indicating that it was still closely monitoring the transborder situation.
While the airline does not have a lot of exposure to the US market, serving only two airports down south in April, Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport
(FLL) and Orlando International Airport
(MCO), it is still monitoring whether passengers are more likely to make last-minute bookings based on the economic environment.
Still, Annick Guerard, the President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Air Transat, said that the airline was “closely monitoring the situation as it evolves” as the industry entered a strong booking period for the summer season, which begins on March 30.
Photo: Rix Pix Photography | Shutterstock
Alexis von Hoensbroech, the CEO of WestJet,
told Canada-based CTV News that since the tariffs were announced by US President Donald Trump, the airline has seen a very significant drop in bookings from Canada to the US.
“I am personally very disappointed by the way things are going. I think that a trade war is the very last thing this country, this continent, this world needs.”
Air Canada,
which expected to end 2025 with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of between CA$3.4 billion ($2.3 billion) and CA$3.8 billion ($2.6 billion) when it published its 2024 results on February 13, said that its guidance was subject to, in part, “the potential impact of statements or actions by governments relating to the imposition of (or threats to impose) tariffs on exports or imports, and related consequences.”
Related
Canada’s Air Transat Cautious Over Impact Of Trump’s Tariffs
Despite limited exposure to the US market, Air Transat warned about the potential indirect impacts from the trade conflict between Canada and the US.
Capacity changes
So far, there has been little adjustment to capacity between Canada and the US between March and October, as shown by data from the aviation analytics company Cirium’s Diio Mi airline planning tool.
Comparing the same eight-month period between 2025 and 2024, airlines have added 4.1% of flights and 4.5% of seats on routes from Canada to the US, with the only carriers axing itineraries being Canadian.
This includes Air Transat and Flair Airlines,
which have removed 22.1% and 26.5% of flights between March and October, compared to the same period in 2024, respectively, with Air Canada growing its flights on transborder routes by only 0.6%.
Naturally, in an ever-changing situation, with Trump’s administration not backing down despite the apparent economic harm that would be done to their own constituents and instead doubling down, threatening Canada and the European Union (EU) that if they work together, the US will impose “large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had,” according to Trump’s post on Truth Social, the capacity numbers still could change on short notice.
At the same time, some routes from Canada to the US that were previously scheduled will not take off, as demand has forced airlines to adjust at least some capacity. These are displayed below using data from Cirium’s Diio Mi.
UPDATE: 2025/03/28 09:21 EST BY RYTIS BERESNEVIČIUS
Air Canada has provided a statement to Simple Flying, saying that the data does not reflect its bookings. The statement in full:
“Several media have reported on a blog based upon preliminary OAG data, stating that advanced bookings between Canada and the US are down about 70% compared to last year. However, we can confirm that this is not reflective of Air Canada’s booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us.While we have experienced a softening in the transborder market – and have shifted a limited amount of capacity to adapt to it as previously announced – the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited in the blog. According to our information, when aggregating all indirect and direct booking channels, the decline is significantly less.As usual, Air Canada will be discussing trends and volumes on its quarterly calls.”
Photo: Great Circle Map
Related
WestJet No Longer Launching New Route Between Calgary & New York LaGuardia
In the past few weeks, Canadian and US airlines have removed flights between the countries due to simmering tensions between the two.
link
