Free buses may surge ridership and travel time, maintenance

The M116 was part of the five-route fare-free bus pilot that ended last August.

Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani pushed for it in Albany in the Assembly. Now, fast and free buses are one of his main policy planks.

Riders on the route told NY1 they wish it continued.

Mamdani says it will cost nearly $700 million a year, which would have to come from Albany — a hard sell. 

MTA data reveals bus revenue last year was almost $800 million. With ridership up 12% this year, free buses could cost more.

“Denver is one example,” Eric Goldwyn, an associate professor at the NYU Marron Institute of Urban Management, said. “There is greater wear and tear on the buses. So, the operating the maintenance costs increased. And the other thing is if you have a boom, let’s say in bus ridership, because the fare is free, you likely need to run more buses. So, then, that is also an operating cost.”

Denver pulled back to one free route. But Danny Pearlstein of transit advocacy group Riders Alliance says long-term, it could pay off.

“We can save on other subsidies that we give to drivers because more people are actually able in many neighborhoods to get out of their car and onto the bus,” Pearlstein said. “That’s a more efficient way of moving millions of people around.”

The MTA’s analysis of the pilot showed new ridership went up only 12%. The 40% ridership increase by the summer was mostly more trips from existing riders. That slowed buses down by 4.3%.

Goldwyn says there are better ways to address both speed and affordability: More busways and other physical infrastructure, and the Fair Fares program, which would help both bus and subway riders.

“I would try to sort of increase income limits. I would try to provide steeper discounts,” Goldwyn said. “You know, it currently is only a 50% discount. But why not make it 100% for some riders? And then I would definitely try to improve participation in enrollment.”

As mayor, Mamdani could easily create more bus lanes and improve Fair Fares. He says he wants to do that and free buses.

“The MTA has said that success for fare fares would be maybe 50% of the eligible population utilizing that program,” Mamdani said at a recent event. “I want 100%. And the best way of doing that is by making it free at point of service.”

As for the MTA, Chair and CEO Janno Lieber says free buses send the wrong message with fare evasion a major issue. However, he says he appreciates Mamdani introducing a discussion around better and more affordable transit.